October 2024 Market Update

How Emerging are the Emerging Markets?

Craig McAvinue By Craig McAvinue – 3 November, 2024

“I cannot forecast you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”

Stock and currency markets performance

As October came to an end, we saw a small decline in most markets over the month, with a negative second half after a strong start to October.

But 2024 continues to be a strong year…

October 2024 Stock

Data from Google Finance

With the falls, as is usually the correlation. The USD gained ground against other major currencies

October 2024 Currency

Data from Google Finance

Although volatility still inherent in the equity markets remains, we have not seen the same levels as we did in August and September.

Results for Quarter three saw the US economy grow 2.8%, roughly in line with the expectations. Inflation remains on the decline, down 0.5% in quarter three.

Politics and Markets: A Complex Relationship

With 2024 being seen as one of the most political years of  all time with many major countries having had / having  elections, last week and this week see two aspects of this political year.

With the UK now under a Labour government for the first time in fourteen years, the first labour budget in sometime was announced last week.

Market update Nov UK election

With high tax rise, more public sector spending and more borrowing forming part of the budget, (in line with expected left wing policies) , it is often assumed that these less “business friendly” governments have a negative impact on the stock markets. It is true that over the years, the UK FTSE has performed better under a conservative government, with average gains of 10.8% against 6.2%

An even bigger political event taking place this week is of course the US election where Donald Trump aims to re enter the White House after four years of Democrat rule.

Interestingly despite Republican politics being seen as more “business friendly”, since 1945, markets have performed better under Democratic governments, averaging 10.8% gains against 4.8%

Government fiscal policy is important in dealing with financial issues that arrive, though the correlation between a certain right or left leaning government and good and bad stock market performance does not exist. In fifty years time the above stats could reveal very different numbers.

As an investor the focus you should have is on the quality of what you are investing in. Companies with good products, good strong management. Funds with good managers who buy good companies in good sectors. Taking this approach over looking at politics is likely to yield you more success.

Large Geo political events, such as Covid of course have an impact on market performance but this is nearly always in the short term. To succeed over the long term, often these events are no more than a blip. The world is currently in a rather precarious place, with two large wars with influential global players involved yet stock markets remain strong.

Emerging Markets and Digital Powerhouses

The recent meeting of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) leaders in Russia showed a very different stance taken by these countries on Russian leader Vladamir Putin, who has been ostracised by the US, UK and EU since the invasion of Ukraine. Whilst the west is sanctioning Russia, the BRICS countries are embracing their leader and its very much business as usual.

Market update Nov Brics leaders

The BRICS countries’ population total 40% of the world. Compare this to NATO members where it’s just 12%. Although NATO accounts for 40% of global GDP and BRICS just 25%, the gap is closing. 

China is finally having a strong year economically after a few tough years and India continues to grow its economy at a well managed steady rate.

The Emerging Market economies cannot be ignored and there are growth opportunities here, just as there are on the S&P 500. It’s about identifying those opportunities. 

Social Media platforms are a huge part of the world we live in today. The founder of Tik Tok was named last month as China’s richest man. Zhang Yiming, whose net worth of US$48 billion. This is roughly half of his US contemporary Mark Zukerberg. Tik Tok has around 1 billion users, with Facebook now at 3 billion…

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